Emerging countries will account for an ever-increasing share of output. Longer working lives will partially offset the decline in working-age populations. Please try again or select another dataset. Bolder reforms in labor and product markets could raise long-term living standards by an average of 16 percent relative to the baseline scenario, which only assumes moderate policy improvements. Faster growth in low-income and emerging countries will reduce the wide gaps in living standards seen today with advanced countries, though large cross-country differences will persist. While GDP per capita in the poorest economies will more than quadruple over the 2011 to 2060 period, it will only double in the richest economies. Domestic product covers different indicators of national accounts with a focus on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is GDP given in current prices, without adjustment for inflation. Deeper structural reforms and faster fiscal consolidation, on the other hand, could reduce imbalances by as much as a quarter over the same. Countries with relatively low productivity today — such as India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and many nations in Eastern Europe — will experience faster productivity growth than the more developed economies as technology uptake and better business governance lead to convergence with advanced countries. These growth patterns will lead to radical changes in the relative size of economies, with fast-growing emerging economies comprising an increasing share of global output. OECD iLibrary This indicator is measured in growth rates compared to previous year. Deeper structural reforms and faster fiscal consolidation, on the other hand, could reduce imbalances by as much as a quarter over the same period. The balance of economic power will shift over the next half century. The combined GDP of China and India will soon surpass that of the G-7 economies, and will exceed that of the entire current OECD membership by 2060. With most OECD economies — and also some emerging economies, such as China — expected to be hit by aging and declining working-age populations, labor is not expected to make major contributions to growth. The U.S. is the largest economy today, accounting for around 23 percent of global output, but it will be exceeded by China, perhaps as soon as 2016. Our extended long-term forecasts suggest that Asia’s rise will continue up to 2050—not quite at the same pace, but by 2050 it will account for 53% of global GDP. Emerging economies’ growth will drop from the average 7 percent annual rates seen over the past decade to around 5 percent in the 2020s and about half that by the 2050s. Powered by .Stat technology | © OECD. Inaction is no longer a choice OECD nations or emerging economies can afford. GDP is the standard measure of the value of final goods and services produced by a country during a period minus the value of imports. China’s “New Era” started with strong growth and per capita GDP will likely double by 2020 relative to 2010 , thus making a large contribution to the expansion of the world economy. OECD research shows the outlook for global growth and living standards improves dramatically if countries implement structural reforms. Bolder reforms in labor and product markets could raise long-term living standards by an average of 16 percent relative to the baseline scenario, which only assumes moderate policy improvements. Source: Economic Outlook No 95 - Long-term Baseline Projections, 2014 OECD Looking to 2060 - Long Term Economic Forecast - knoema.com Data Products Insights Data Partners Today’s economic heavyweights will lose ground to younger emerging powers like Indonesia and Brazil. In that year, China’s share of world output would peak at 27%. After recovery from the current crisis, global GDP could grow around 3 percent a year on average in the next 50 years. These growth patterns will lead to radical changes in the relative size of economies, with fast-growing emerging economies comprising an increasing share of global output. This indicator is less suited for comparisons over time, as developments are not only caused by real growth, but also by changes in prices and PPPs. While GDP per capita in the poorest economies will more than quadruple over the 2011 to 2060 period, it will only double in the richest economies. Growth in the 34-nation OECD area is projected at about 2 percent annually to 2060, with declining rates in many high-income countries. All rights reserved. Nominal GDP forecast Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is GDP given in current prices, without adjustment for inflation. This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. 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It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. Education and productivity improvements will drive growth in both developed and emerging economies, with productivity gains being the most powerful driver. While growth rates in emerging countries are expected to continue outpacing those in developed nations, the difference will narrow over the coming decades. China will experience more than a sevenfold increase of its per capita income over the coming half century, though living standards will still only be 60 percent of those in the leading countries in 2060. The combined GDP of China and India will soon surpass that of the G-7 economies, and will exceed that of the entire current OECD membership by 2060. While growth rates in emerging countries are expected to continue outpacing those in developed nations, the difference will narrow over the coming decades. Today’s economic heavyweights will lose ground to younger emerging powers like Indonesia and Brazil. Select one or more items in both lists to browse for the relevant content, Browse the selectedThemes and / or countries. Ambitious product market reforms that raise productivity growth could increase global GDP by an average of about 10 percent, while policies that encourage labour force participation could increase GDP by more than 6 percent on average. Emerging countries will account for an ever-increasing share of output. Growth in the 34-nation OECD area is projected at about 2 percent annually to 2060, with declining rates in many high-income countries. Bolder reforms in labor and product markets could raise long-term living standards by an average of 16 percent relative to the baseline scenario, which only assumes moderate policy improvements. Ambitious product market reforms that raise productivity growth could increase global GDP by an average of about 10 percent, while policies that encourage labour force participation could increase GDP by more than 6 percent on average. The U.S. is the largest economy today, accounting for around 23 percent of global output, but it will be exceeded by China, perhaps as soon as 2016. Inaction is no longer a choice OECD nations or emerging economies can afford. Longer working lives will partially offset the decline in working-age populations. OECD Economic Outlook Publication (2020) Indicators. Countries with relatively low productivity today — such as India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and many nations in Eastern Europe — will experience faster productivity growth than the more developed economies as technology uptake and better business governance lead to convergence with advanced countries. With most OECD economies — and also some emerging economies, such as China — expected to be hit by aging and declining working-age populations, labor is not expected to make major contributions to growth. Emerging economies’ growth will drop from the average 7 percent annual rates seen over the past decade to around 5 percent in the 2020s and about half that by the 2050s. OECD research shows the outlook for global growth and living standards improves dramatically if countries implement structural reforms. The radical shift in global GDP will be matched by a trend of converging GDP per capita between developing and emerging economies. For some lower-income countries with comparatively low levels of average education — India, Turkey, China, Portugal and South Africa — the build up of skills will also add to growth.
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